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PESA SA/NT Feb Technical Luncheon: Risk Analysis And Volumetrics In 2020 – What about the Upside?

Thursday, 20 February, 2020 @ 12:00 pm - 2:00 pm (Australia/Perth time)

$20.00 – $60.00

Guest Speaker(s): Steve McIntyre

Steve McIntyre has been involved in oil and gas exploration and development since 1981. He has experience as a prospect generator, leading exploration, development and planning teams. Since the early 1990’s he has been involved in the development and application of risk analysis techniques and portfolio management processes. He has trained staff and management and provided consulting support at more than 50 E&P companies. He has also provided advice to the mineral exploration industry and to professional sporting franchises. Steve’s long term focus has been on analysing predictive performance and the technical work on which estimates are based over long periods where methodologies, data types and sophistication of interpretative tools has varied, how optimism and overconfidence is pervasive in the E&P and other industries and is entirely consistent with ongoing research in the fields of psychology and neuroscience and how methodologies need to incorporate what has been learned from real world industry performance and the way we perceive, process and integrate information in order to be effective.


The ongoing success of the E&P industry continues to rely heavily on large discoveries, of upside outcomes. The ability of current risk analysis practices to identify the magnitude and likelihood of exploration prospect upside potential has always and continues to be debated.

We will discuss:

  • A representative example of the chronic underperformance of the exploration sector in the 1990’s, the efficacy of the type of process widely adopted at that time to address these issues and the implications for forecast upsides.
  • How we are going today with further development of the process, better and more substantive datasets, sophisticated tools and workflows and decades of individual, company and industry experience
  • The performance of other industries that are facing the same challenges and what we can learn from them
  • The implications of ongoing developments in the understanding of heuristics, cognitive bias and neuroscience
  • Several examples of where realised upside potential was not captured in pre-discovery forecasts
  • The implications for determination of upside potential in the future

Sponsor: Cooper Energy, Beach Energy, Santos and the Department for Energy and Mining



Thursday, 20 February, 2020
12:00 pm - 2:00 pm
(Australia/Perth time)
$20.00 – $60.00
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    Ayers House – Conservatory
    288 North Tce
    Adelaide, SA 5000 Australia
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