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PESA SA/NT Feb Technical Luncheon: Risk Analysis And Volumetrics In 2020 – What about the Upside?
Thursday, 20 February, 2020 @ 12:00 pm - 2:00 pm (Australia/Perth time)$20.00 – $60.00
RISK ANALYSIS AND VOLUMETRICS IN 2020: WHAT ABOUT THE UPSIDE?
The ongoing success of the E&P industry continues to rely heavily on large discoveries, of upside outcomes. The ability of current risk analysis practices to identify the magnitude and likelihood of exploration prospect upside potential has always and continues to be debated.
We will discuss:
- A representative example of the chronic underperformance of the exploration sector in the 1990’s, the efficacy of the type of process widely adopted at that time to address these issues and the implications for forecast upsides.
- How we are going today with further development of the process, better and more substantive datasets, sophisticated tools and workflows and decades of individual, company and industry experience
- The performance of other industries that are facing the same challenges and what we can learn from them
- The implications of ongoing developments in the understanding of heuristics, cognitive bias and neuroscience
- Several examples of where realised upside potential was not captured in pre-discovery forecasts
- The implications for determination of upside potential in the future